Dr. Bill McCoy’s Perspective
Dr. Bill McCoy served as director of the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute from 1985 to 2001. He is also an emeritus professor of political science at UNC Charlotte. With nearly 40 years of experience working in economic development in the Charlotte region, Dr. McCoy offers interesting and valuable insight related to this initial Charlotte Regional Indicators Report.
Recasting Destiny
Since 1960, the population of the Charlotte region has more than doubled. As a result, Charlotte and the region have recast their potential destiny.
No longer competing with Greensboro, Winston-Salem and Raleigh or aspiring to be like Atlanta, Charlotte is viewed as a national city and is regularly compared with rapidly growing urban areas throughout the United States. Such comparisons often occur with Sun Belt locales, where most of the new growth cities are located.
We still measure ourselves against Atlanta but in a different way. Atlanta’s problems with traffic, education and other negative outcomes from rapid growth are what we want to avoid. We want to be the new Atlanta that works.
From Whence We’ve Come
That’s a far cry from where we’ve come. In 1960, Charlotte was a relatively small, blue-collar city in a region where the economy was dominated by agricultural activities, textile manufacturing and furniture making. These industries attracted distribution and financial services that eventually would become more important than the traditional economic drivers.
The distribution network necessary to bring raw materials to the region’s manufacturing plants and to move final products to the point of sale continued to grow and expand even as manufacturing activity eventually slowed beginning in the 1970s. Today distribution is still one of the most vigorous and important parts of the region’s economy.
During those expansion years of manufacturing, money to finance the growth came from a plethora of banks that had sprung up in the region, mainly in Charlotte when the city became a national center for textile production in the early 1900s. The financial institutions have flourished since that time, leading to the current situation of having two of the largest banks in the United States, Bank of America and Wachovia, headquartered in Charlotte.
Benefits, Challenges of Growth
Today, for Charlotte to become “the new Atlanta that works,” residents, employers, civic leaders, governments and other organizations within the region need to work together to help shape the region’s remarkable growth. While growth has brought the region an array of remarkable opportunities, it has also presented formidable challenges.
The positive impacts feature flourishing employment opportunities, a dramatic rise in household income and a high rate of home ownership. Growth also has attracted amenities to our region that only a few may have imagined 50 years ago: arts and cultural offerings, a proliferation of upscale and ethnic restaurants, recreational and professional sports teams, NASCAR growth, museums, youth activities and much more.
At the same time, rapid growth has resulted in the region struggling to handle overcrowded schools, traffic congestion, crime and a loss of sense of place. It will take a huge financial commitment to address these problems. Securing such a commitment presents a challenge against a political backdrop where increasing the property tax rate, or any other tax for that matter, makes politicians worry about their political future.
This report’s demographic overview and 10 indicator theme areas represent a promising initial overview of the quality of life in our 14-county region. In subsequent reports, the report’s authors hope to expand the data to provide even more useful indicators. Limited availability of data and other constraints inhibited the inclusion of many valuable topics in this inaugural report.
A more in-depth analysis of many areas would be possible through the addition of attitudinal and opinion data, supplementing the hard census or secondary data on which many of the indicators are based. I hope one day to see a regional attitudinal and opinion survey infuse this report with additional layers of meaning. For example, our region has seen slowly declining crime rates so far this decade, with fluctuations in types of crimes in the fastest-growing counties. Yet, local television news emphasizes crime reporting so much that people may feel more unsafe than in the past, even though the data suggest no increase in the likelihood of being a victim.
Education
Enrollment Surges, SATs Competitive, Graduation Rates Mixed
To me, the topic in this year’s report that offered the most compelling information was Education. This region has not seen anything in the past that would compare with the growth rate of its pre-kindergarten-through-12th grade population over the last 20 years, particularly in high-growth counties.
Thirty years ago, Mecklenburg County probably averaged adding less than one new school a year, and some of those were replacements. Now, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools need to open a high school, a middle school and three elementary schools annually just to keep up. Other high-growth counties are experiencing the same thing. The Cabarrus County Schools opened four new schools at the start of the 2007-08 school year.
An encouraging education indicator is SAT scores. The regional average as well as the averages of most school systems in the region cluster around the national average. The area of concern with this indicator is the lower SAT scores among rural and poor populations when compared with their peers. By this one well-known measure, people can see that most students educated here are on par with their peers nationally. This is important if our young people, and ultimately our region, are going to compete effectively on a U.S. and global basis.
Another positive indicator is the percentage of high school graduates who “intend” to continue their education past the high school level. In recent years, more than 80 percent planned to attend a community college, technical school or four-year institution of higher education. Historically, that percentage was much lower when young people were depended on to work in mills and on farms. One caveat, though: This indicator is one of “intentions,” and the reality of how many go on to higher education is somewhat less.
A troubling measure of our school-age population is the high school graduation rate. This has been a long-term negative for the Charlotte region. Nine of the 21 school districts still have only 60-70% graduating from high school within four years. The variation ranges from 60 percent who graduate in that time frame in Anson County to 89 percent in Fort Mill. In Charlotte-Mecklenburg, the region’s largest school system, about three-quarters graduate within four years. Historically, we have had difficulty in finding a measure of “dropouts” on which there is agreement. One will see other measures of “dropouts” or “graduation rates” that differ from these.
On the brighter side, the educational level of the working, adult population has increased in recent years. The region’s percentage of working adults age 25 or older with a bachelor’s degree or higher rose six percentage points from 1990 through 2000 (17.2 to 23.2 percent). This moved the region close to the national average of 24.4 percent in 2000. I attribute much of this increase in educational standing to people migrating to the region for professional jobs.
Transportation
Airport Passenger Traffic Grows, Travel Times Within Region Increase
Transportation was another strong topic in this year’s report. The continued growth of passenger traffic at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport is one of the region’s biggest success stories. In future reports, I would like to see the economic impact of the airport quantified. It would also be useful to address the activity of smaller airports in the region, which have grown greatly in recent years.
With highway travel, the percentage of workers (age 16 or older) driving to work alone has remained steady over the last decade. The figure of slightly more than 80 percent is close to the national percentage and not likely to change much over time.
Travel times within the region have increased dramatically since 1990, whether it be work commutes or travel in general at peak times. The average annual travel delay per peak traveler nearly doubled from 1995 through 2005, rising from 23 person-hours of delay in 1995 to 45 person-hours of delay in 2005. Delays experienced during peak travel times (6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. to 7 p.m.) accompany urban sprawl.
New transportation options, such as light rail or high-occupancy lanes on highways, may affect travel time to some degree. Even more significant, though, are land-use and lifestyle decisions that result in more people living in dense urban environments and using public transportation.
Health
Income Level Affects Measures, Minority Infant Mortality Rate High
In looking at the health of the Charlotte region, this year’s report focuses on three types of death rates — suicide, infant mortality and overall mortality — as well as rates of birth and sexually transmitted disease. Suicide rates tend to be a weak indicator because they don’t change much over time and aren’t readily correlated with mental health treatment. The data show that higher rates occur in poorer counties than in richer counties, and that difference may be the result of economic conditions.
Economic conditions definitely play a key role in the infant mortality rate. Again, higher rates generally occur in poorer counties and lower rates occur in richer counties. Historically, the region has had a high infant mortality rate because of low wages, lack of health insurance and poor educational levels. Education and money would go a long way toward solving this problem.
A racial reality with infant mortality also needs to be addressed. The average county infant mortality rate for minorities was nearly double that of the overall county rate and more than double that of the white rate. The minority average was 17.7 deaths per 1,000 births in 2004, compared with a 9.3 overall average. The average county white infant mortality rate was 6.5 deaths per 1,000 births.
Another indicator tied to race is the overall mortality rate. Heart disease and cancer are believed to be linked to race, but this year’s report does not explore that connection.
Historically, the Charlotte region has had high heart disease rates because of low educational levels, strenuous manufacturing work, smoking, poor diets and other unhealthy activities. Even though some of these conditions have improved, and employment in textile plants has declined precipitously in recent years, the region still exceeded the heart disease rates for both North and South Carolina in 2004. The region’s overall mortality rate and cancer mortality rate also surpassed both states. Clearly, these health issues need to be studied further.
Another vital health indicator in this year’s report is the rate of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). While regional rates for gonorrhea and chlamydia are lower than those for both North and South Carolina, many counties within the region either surpassed the state rates or otherwise had high rates for both diseases. Five counties within the region had high rates for both: Anson, Chester, Cleveland, Gaston and Mecklenburg. Poor economic conditions, low education levels and the drug culture tend to be factors with the population contracting STDs.
In future reports on health, additional indicators should focus on health-related expenditures, insurance coverage and racial variations in life expectancy. A regional survey on health would be valuable in examining access to health care, incidence of disease and other health issues.
Government and Citizen Participation
Charitable Giving Shows Consolidated Approach, Mecklenburg Focus
The Government and Citizen Participation category captures data about charitable giving and voter turnout. The focus on contributions to public and private foundations that filed the federal tax Form 990 (more than $25,000 in income), however, may omit much of the charitable giving in the community. Ferreting out such information is a worthy goal.
The indicators suggest a significant centralization within the region related to charitable giving. Large institutions, such as the United Way of Central Carolinas, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Arts & Science Council, The Foundation For The Carolinas and the Duke Endowment, are critically important to charitable contributions in our region. While some of these institutions have a regional or even broader scope, they are based in Charlotte.
The lack of giving in the surrounding counties reflects how recently these counties were poor — and some still are — and had nothing to give or no habit of giving beyond what they contributed to their church and family.
Voter turnout is an excellent indicator of citizen engagement in the life of the community. The data suggest that over the brief period measured about two-thirds of registered voters participated by voting in presidential election years. An average of about 40 percent voted in non-presidential elections. If more data were uniformly available for primaries and off-year local elections, we would find even lower percentages exercising their right to vote.
Many contextual variables color the picture of voter turnout. These numbers are based on registered voters, and some counties make more effort to register voters than others. Some counties also are more vigorous about taking non-voters off the registered list. All this being said, the high voter turnout in Chester County may mean the citizenry is more engaged than other counties or it may relate to these contextual variables or other factors.
In the future, the authors may want to add other indicators that show how people are engaged in the political process, such as through making campaign contributions, working on campaigns, writing letters to the editor and being a member of a political action committee.
Arts, Recreation and Cultural Life
Printed Library Resources Keep Pace with Population Growth
With Arts, Recreation and Cultural Life, the information on funding of public libraries within the region is encouraging. We are holding our own in the face of population increases when it comes to printed materials, staff and facilities. Adequate per capita government spending on libraries is fairly constant in the counties of the region, and reflects a major shift from where the region was prior to the 1970s.
Prior to the 1970s, the region was made up largely of blue-collar working people, most of whom prized work, not education. Libraries became more important in the 1960s and 1970s as the region realized education was linked to economic development and as more professionals began moving to the area.
To further understand the important role of libraries, I think we should look at access to libraries, perhaps by identifying the number of branches and their locations in relation to the population. I would also like to see an indicator that addresses electronic holdings and/or resources in libraries.
I’d also like to see a broader indicator to quantify money spent on the arts. Money from state and federal government sources, as noted in this year’s report, represents only a percentage of total funding. We need to take into account local sources and grant funding.
It would also be useful to know how much land in the region, and in the counties, is actually set aside for active and passive recreation, including greenways, bicycle paths and other open space. In addition, a public opinion survey would help gauge how people feel about the arts, cultural and recreational opportunities that we have in the region.
The Economy
Per Capita Income Rises, Unemployment Drops from 2003
In reviewing data on the region’s economy, I was pleased to see that per capita income rose greatly from 1990 through 2005. But I believe an even better measure is household income, which is included in our indicators. Per capita figures inherently include large groups of people who generally don’t work, those under 16 and those 65 or older. Including them in the mix brings down the per capita average. The increase in household income over the last 20 to 25 years has been dramatic The Charlotte region is significantly wealthier than it was several decades ago, as evidenced by the arrival and growth of upscale retailers, particularly in Charlotte.
Unemployment rates in the region peaked in 2003 at 6.8 percent and declined to 5.1 in 2006. This indicates that the region has rallied from the economic downturn following the 9/11 terrorist attacks and from the closing of many textile plants, including Pillowtex in Cabarrus County. Manufacturing in general continues to decline as a regional employer; though, it still leads among types of employment, at 15.2 percent of all jobs. And the manufacturing sector that remains is transitioning from a labor intensive, low tech industry to a capital intensive, high tech industry.
Service jobs continue to rise but are occurring most in urban and urbanizing areas of the region. These jobs vary tremendously in wages, ranging from minimum-wage retail positions to high-paid professional jobs. Our ability to understand this growth in the service sector would benefit from breaking out the low-income service jobs from the higher paying ones.
Data on distribution and wholesale jobs in the region should also be analyzed. Charlotte has long been a transportation and distribution hub serving both regional and national clients. Is this sector growing, holding its own or declining? It would also be informative to study business and industry in the region based on the employee size of the company. Large employers tend to have a significant economic impact on the region.
Coupling data on annual payrolls with growth in industry segments would also give us a better idea of our economic strengths and weaknesses related to jobs.
Environment
Legislation Curbs Negative Impacts, Unhealthy Air Days Decline
With the environment, the indicators in this year’s report suggest that the human impact on our air, water and land is varied. The area where we’ve seen improvement is air quality, which has resulted from the Clean Air Act and complementary actions taken by local and state officials. This result challenges the claim that legislation can’t improve environmental conditions.
Within the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which encompasses many but not all of the counties in the Charlotte region, the percentage of unhealthy air days has declined over the past decade. However, the MSA is still in “Non-Attainment” of the Clean Air Act, partly because the Environmental Protection Agency’s criteria have stiffened in recent years. Regardless of the slight improvement in air quality, our air is still not as healthy as it needs to be.
As the region continues to grow, sustained attention on local and state levels will be necessary. Furthermore, because of the global nature of some environmental problems, action at national and international levels will be needed as well. The international Kyoto Protocol, which limits greenhouse gases, is a good example of how global efforts may assist in improving air quality in this country.
Housing
High Rate of Home Ownership, Apartment Construction Expected
Housing data in the Charlotte region indicate a high rate of home ownership. Nearly 70 percent of the homes in the region are owner-occupied. The for-sale market in the region has cooled in 2007 as credit has tightened because of troubled loans and their impact on financial markets. But as of mid-fall, home prices in the region have remained steady. It is important to continue watching how tighter credit affects the market, especially among first-time buyers with limited resources, many of whom also have poor credit.
I expect to see a rise in apartment construction in the near future. Tighter credit has dampened the condo and townhome market, and the average apartment vacancy rate for six of the region’s counties is below 10 percent (6.52 in early 2007). It will be interesting to see how apartment construction affects rents, which are relatively low. The average county rent within the region in early 2007 was about $630.
It will also be interesting to see if the boost in apartment construction results in an over-built market in apartments. The region’s historic pattern is a cycle of over-building apartments about every 10 years or so, followed by a three or four-year building hiatus while the over-built supply is consumed.
The concern about building relates mainly to Mecklenburg County, where most of region’s apartments are located. Counties in the region gaining population are most likely to need additional housing. Yet, residents in suburban and suburbanizing counties historically have fought apartment construction. The county with the highest rate of owner-occupied housing is Union, at 80.5 percent.
The mobile home component of the market — sometimes called manufactured housing — remained steady in the region from 1990 to 2000 at about 12 percent of the housing stock. This percentage of the market will decline as land prices continue to rise. However, in the more rural and poorer counties, mobile homes will make up a significant part of the existing housing stock as well as new housing starts for the foreseeable future.
Public Safety
Crime Rates Steady, Workplace Safety Benefits from Laws
Public Safety indicators in this report yielded positive results. There’s been a negligible increase in calls to 911, a change that can be attributed to population growth. Crime rates have declined since the start of the decade in 2000, with fluctuations in types of crime in the fastest-growing areas.
Workplace safety continues to be good, drawing strength from federal workplace safety mandates enacted in the 1930s with the New Deal and in the 1960s with the creation of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, best known as “OSHA.” Additional federal legislation in the 1960s improved the conditions of textile mills, where hearing loss and brown lung disease were common.
If companies follow state and federal workplace laws, then workplace safety should remain good. The biggest workplace safety problems generally come from employers who don’t observe the law, such as occurred with the chicken-plant fire in Hamlet, N.C., which killed 25 people in 1991.
Social Well-Being
Nearly Half of 65 or Older Residents Need Help, Teen Parenting Drops
The Social Well-Being indicators yielded valuable insights.
The elderly-care indicator showed how widespread the need is in our region for assistance among people 65 or over with at least one of the Activities of Daily Living (ADL). Such activities include eating, dressing, bathing, transfers (the ability to get in and out of a bed or chair), ambulation and communications. The data show that nearly half of that age group in the region needs such help. Furthermore, those 85 or older are the fastest-growing sub-set of this group, percentage-wise, and generally have the greatest number of health issues.
These data are also important in light of the strong preference of those 65 or older to “age in place” in their homes, rather than to move to specialized facilities or institutions. It will be significant over time to break out needs by type and severity of ADL, which vary in how critical they are to the individual’s well-being.
The biggest victory in the social well-being data is the downward trend in teen births through 2003. All racial groups are experiencing the decline, and all counties in the region but Iredell saw a decline from 2000 through 2003. The decline correlates with increasing economic prosperity in the region. The counties with the highest teen birth rates, Chester and Cleveland, are also among the most economically challenged. Contraception and abstinence education have also played roles in the declining teen birth rate. Of concern is the increase detected from 2003 to 2005 among the region’s North Carolina counties (the only counties for which 2004 and 2005 data are currently available). It’s too early to tell whether this is just a “bump in the road” or a signal that new strategies are needed to address teen pregnancies, but it’s a trend worth watching closely.
The percentage of individuals living in poverty is a good measure of social well-being. The study showed an increase from 10.9 percent to 13.6 percent when comparing 2000 to 2005. The 2005 figure of nearly 14 percent is in keeping with the long-term trend related to poverty. Regardless of the government policies and programs or community attention focused on the problem to date, the percentage in poverty stays around 15 percent. If this 15 percent could somehow escape poverty, obtain a good education and take advantage of economic opportunities, many issues of social well-being in our region would be eliminated or greatly improved. We’d have a drop in crime, fewer people in jail or homeless, a further decline in teen pregnancy and, in general, a reduced demand on public resources.
I’ve mentioned more than once the value of conducting an attitudinal and opinion survey with regional residents on variety of topics. Several ideas related to social well-being deserve survey consideration. Looking at “trust levels” related to government, among races and in other respects could be illuminating.
Final Thoughts
The ten theme areas explored in this first-ever Charlotte Regional Indicators Report mark an exciting beginning. The indicators, or metrics, that comprise each topic serve as benchmarks that will allow us to study the successes and failures of our region over time.
Expansion and refinement of this effort will not be easy. Either data are not uniformly kept from state or state, or county to county, or are not available at all. Some data haven’t been collected since the 2000 census. As noted previously, some issues are best explored by surveying a representative sample of the adult population — which is planned for the near future.
As we progress through iterations of this Indicators Project in the future, we can expect to further strengthen the indicators by finding new measures, refining existing ones or developing new data sources. In the meantime, this report is a great and valuable start. The effort to launch this project has been sterling.